A recent report on the Southern Baptist Convention (SBC) highlighted their continuing decline in membership. It’s not really news, hence the use of the word “continuing,” but it’s fascinating for those of us who follow church news. Especially for those of us in the Episcopal Church, which has been the target of much criticism as a failing church, often with a specific note of criticism regarding progressive theology. When I was in seminary, we had already been declining for some time, but the SBC was still experiencing growth. Barely, as it turned out. It was around the time I began my ordained ministry that the decline started, and that decline has continued ever since.
We also know that ALL mainline denominations are in decline and that overall, fewer people are attending Christian churches year over year, even when we take into account the Catholic and non-denominationalists, two groups that are not known for being particularly progressive. The Episcopal Church was an early slider, but others have had a more precipitous decline over the last two decades, and our numerical decline has actually shown some signs of slowing down. Don’t get excited – it won’t last. The other factor looming for mainliners is that we’re among the oldest in terms of the age of our members. For example, half of all Episcopalians are over 65 years old. 60% of Presbyterians are 55 years or older. That means by the time I retire, we could be half our current size.
Adding demographic data to this, we can gain more insight into how we arrived at our current position and where we’re headed. And, if you follow trends in the broader culture around institutions, you probably know that most institutions are also declining – not just churches. Some of what we’re seeing, perhaps more than we realize, has more to do with a series of shifting cultural norms around community, belonging, and authority. We have long suspected if not flat-out known, that many Christians have been cultural Christians, meaning they may not have had a deeply motivating faith but rather liked the community and the people in their churches. As that motivator has declined overall, it’s certainly been part of the story in the shifting sands of Church participation.
Is all of this cause for sackcloth and ashes and the oil of mourning? Should we be lost in grief and wonder about why our Churches have gone so badly off the rails? Probably not, although introspection is never a bad thing. Numerous factors contributed to the peak of many denominations in the 1950s and 1960s, and again, it had a lot to do with cultural influences beyond what Churches could control or claim. Those same forces led to a surge in various organizations and institutions, which also coincided with the baby boom. Perhaps the questions we ought to ask aren’t how we get back to certain numerical thresholds, but rather, what is the Church’s role and mission here and now? Where is the Gospel of Jesus Christ most needed, and how do we take it there?
Our Vestry has done some excellent work over the last month and a half to explore our strengths and weaknesses and also identified what we’re now calling our superpowers. Among them, we noted our ability to offer spiritual formation in various ways, including through meaningful worship. We are aware that we have a remarkable ability to translate the history and traditions of our faith and our congregation into the lexicon of the present day, making the faith relevant to our everyday lives. We also realized that evangelism needs to be a part of our focus in ways it never has been in the past. It’s inspiring work and gives me great hope for the future.
Perhaps the question really is, “What do we have (in the Church) that the world needs?” As we ponder this, we realize that we do have some wonderful and powerful things to offer our community and the wider world. And if that is true, then we know what our work should be. It’s not about numbers, even if numbers can be helpful measures for reflection. It’s about changing lives and helping people find God and the life-giving healing that comes from a reconciled relationship through Jesus Christ.
Our local context is interesting to ponder, both numerically and otherwise. We are not yet back to our pre-pandemic levels, but most denominations exhibit the same trend at the macro level. The smaller the congregation was at the start of the pandemic, the more likely it was to regain its pre-pandemic attendance. Although attendance has been on the rise over the last three years (as it has in many places), we have still not regained all the ground we lost, even considering shifting trends. Nonetheless, participation in events ministry and stewardship is also gaining at Christ Church. Look at the consistency of Wednesday nights, the Annual Meeting, and our recent picnic for examples of this. A few weeks ago, we welcomed a large group into the Episcopal Church, and we’ve had more than twice the normal number of annual baptisms over the last two years. There are numerous indications of and reasons for hope, even if numbers tend to get us down overall.
Numbers can be tricky to learn from. They tell a story but never the whole story. If all we knew about American Christianity were the growth experiences of the first half of the 20th Century, we might imagine that Christianity was less than a century old. If we had drawn a line down the uphill curve backward in time, it should have hit zero just a few decades earlier. But it didn’t. It may have been smaller, but it was there. In 1920, churches like ours weren’t as large or as rapidly growing as they would be a few decades later, but they still managed to thrive.
The Church has existed in some form or another – constantly changing forms – for two thousand years. I have a hunch that it will still be around in another two thousand, regardless of what trends we think we have come to understand. I hope the folks who make up the church then, whoever they may be, will faithfully ask the questions we ask and do the work as faithfully as I hope we’re trying to do it now. That’s all God expects of us, and frankly, that’s always been enough. That reality isn’t going to, and doesn't need to, change.
Tom+
