I have liked the Baltimore Orioles since I was a kid. I’ve been to Camden Yards a number of times, although every time I’ve seen them play in person, they’ve lost. They’ve done that a lot in my lifetime. The American League East has some great teams, notably our nemesis, the New York Yankees, so it’s never been an easy effort to get on or stay on top. Last year was particularly difficult, and it’s safe to say that this year is considered a rebuilding year, with a new coach and a number of new players starting. Since opening day, we’ve also seen a shakeup in positions and pitching rosters too.
If you saw the movie, Moneyball, a few years ago, you know how much statistics and computer models influence the game now. Smart owners employ as much data as possible to run the odds on a player, a team, and many other things. They can tweak things here and there, based on probabilities to put together the ideal team, at least on paper. But for all that such technology is useful, it is not a perfect science, and sometimes odds are made just to be beaten.
It’s VERY early in the season to make any strong predictions, so I’m not getting too excited yet, but the Orioles’ start to this season is better than anyone had hoped. After five games, they are four and one, just behind Tampa Bay, who is equally a surprise at five and one. Except for losing their first game to the Yankees, the Birds have won four in a row – matching their best streak from last year. I don’t think there are many who expect it to last. Almost everyone who makes predictions believes it’s only a matter of time, and perhaps not that much time, until the standings start to fall out in a predictable way.
Even so, the strong start by a team that was written off during the pre-season is a welcome turn of events. It also serves as an example of the disruption of the assumptions and at least a short-term odds-busting anomaly. But those odds and assumptions do suggest things will take a turn south. Although it’s unlikely that the Orioles will finish more games out of first place than last year, they are still predicted to finish last in their division. No one is betting on them to win, for sure. The Yankees and the Red Sox will duke it out for the top spot, and everyone else will play for third. At least on paper. We’ll see what happens.
Maybe it’s a factor of being a fan after an embarrassingly bad year, to be hopeful about this one. It has to get better, and better equals hope. It seems the team has a good attitude so far, from the manager right on down the roster. But it’s easy to be in a good mood when you’re winning. October magic is a long way off, but I’ll take a little April magic right now. Magic is magic. Hope is hope. In the big scheme of things, baseball doesn’t matter, to God, or to most people. I’m not even the biggest fan or a baseball fanatic who follows every stat. I am a big fan of hope, however. If this team can show me even a glimmer of hope; a sign that rebirth and rebuilding is possible in the world around us right now, I’ll take it.
Tom+
Loving God, by your Holy Spirit inspire me, as I fear losing hope. Give me a fresh vision of your love, that I may find again what I fear I have lost. Grant me your powerful deliverance; through the One who makes all things new, Jesus Christ our Redeemer. Amen.